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Economic Outlook for North America --- How are we doing?

Blog by Kevin Kurjata | January 4th, 2011

Last week RBC issued it's Economic & Financial Market Outlook for North America for 2011 - 2012, in parallel with TD Economics issuing their economic forecast.

How are we doing? Where are we headed? What's the overlay on economic activity in the South Peace?

Well .... pretty good :) (see the RBC report here and the TD Economics report here) The reports point to several positive indicators that bode well for all of us:
  • emerging economies, and their demand for energy --- especially natural gas --- are hot and driving the global economy
  • Quantitive Easing in the US will have positive impacts in 2011 - 2012 on North American economics
  • interest rates look to remain low for the short-term, increasing in the second 1/2 of 2011 and into 2012
  • corporations have built up their cash positions, cleaned out their inventories and are ready to ramp up operations
  • defaulting by any EU countries looks remote
  • inflation looks to be controlled and stable, well within Bank of Canada parameters
  • the chances for a "double dip" recession are considered remote
Consumers (that would be all of us) are more optimistic, cautiously spending a bit more, and being careful with our debt. Housing affordibility is improving:

              RBC housing affordibility graph

Alberta is regaining it's economic health: employment is increasing and spending is upticking in the Oilsands sector.  We in NE BC are, in several respects, an extension of Alberta (witness the Alberta plates around Dawson Creek and on the highways :) --- in today's world, that's very good for us.

When the recently-built Groundbirch Pipeline was permitted 2 years ago, Syncrude Canada dubbed that line the "Oilsands Lifeline"; the corporation indicated that the on-going ramp-up of oil-sands production absolutely depended on access to increasing volumes of natural gas from NE BC. Steep production declines are projected from conventional gas fields in Alberta, for a few years yet.

North Amercan economic strength, Alberta moving forward again, + robust activity in our region --- Dawson Creek is a good city to invest in!

Kevin Kurjata -- "market knowledge working for you" 
South Peace Action